COVID CHRONICLES 05/06/20
Living on the Bleeding Edge
Yesterday morning, as I was doing my usual perusal of the day’s news, I was stopped in my tracks by the following headline of an article by Los Angeles Times reporter Ralph Vartabedian:
Scientists say a now-dominant strain of the coronavirus appears to be more contagious than original
Oh? Tell me more. Emphasis added throughout.
“Scientists have identified a new strain of the coronavirus that has become dominant worldwide and appears to be more contagious than the versions that spread in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a new study led by scientists at Los Alamos National Laboratory.
“The new strain appeared in February in Europe, migrated quickly to the East Coast of the United States and has been the dominant strain across the world since mid-March, the scientists wrote.
“In addition to spreading faster, it may make people vulnerable to a second infection after a first bout with the disease, the report warned.”
Wait. What?
“Wherever the new strain appeared, it quickly infected far more people than the earlier strains that came out of Wuhan, China, and within weeks it was the only strain that was prevalent in some nations, according to the report. The new strain’s dominance over its predecessors demonstrates that it is more infectious, according to the report, though exactly why is not yet known.”
Ok, stop.
Our “family band” got sick in January. No question that if they did have coronavirus, it was the Wuhan version (see COVID Chronicles Day -1). My wife Lisa and I traveled from California to New York City in early March.
“The story is worrying, as we see a mutated form of the virus very rapidly emerging, and over the month of March becoming the dominant pandemic form,” study leader Bette Korber, a computational biologist at Los Alamos, wrote on her Facebook page. “When viruses with this mutation enter a population, they rapidly begin to take over the local epidemic, thus they are more transmissible.”
In COVID Chronicles Day 0, I describe the two weeks prior to Lisa’s positive test for COVID-19. To review the timeline, we arrived in New York on Thursday, March 5th and returned home to California on Wednesday March 11, with Lisa’s symptoms starting that day. In the post, I juxtaposed Lisa’s story with the evolution of headlines over the same period.
Now we have a third variable to add. Lisa apparently got infected at the intersection of two forms of the virus.
So which version of the virus did Lisa have?
“The report contains regional breakdowns of when the new strain of virus first emerged and how long it took to become dominant.
“Italy was one of the first countries to see the new virus in the last week of February, almost at the same time that the original strain appeared. Washington was among the first states to get hit with the original strain in late February, but by March 15 the mutated strain dominated. New York was hit by the original virus around March 15, but within days the mutant strain took over. The team did not report results for California.”
Oh, great.
They didn’t report on our state. That would have helped. But let’s review the statement above against our timeline.
According to this report, the virus didn’t hit New York until four days after we left. We know from our experience they’re off by at least a week. But more importantly, the emergence of the mutant strain seems to have come well after we left.
So we can be at least somewhat confident Lisa had the first strain, not the second.
Here’s the end of the article.
“Even if the new strain is no more dangerous than the others, it could still complicate efforts to bring the pandemic under control. That would be an issue if the mutation makes the virus so different from earlier strains that people who have immunity to them would not be immune to the new version.
“If that is indeed the case, it could make “individuals susceptible to a second infection,” the study authors wrote. It’s possible that the mutation changes the spike in some way that helps the virus evade the immune system, said Montefiori, who has worked on an HIV vaccine for 30 years. “It is hypothetical. We are looking at it very hard.”
Which means what?
We were feeling pretty safe having moved through the virus in our home, even while understanding there were still concerns. We were adopting the belief we were likely immune because Lisa tested positive and I, though asymptomatic, most likely had the virus too.
Now? NO.
It’s as if we’ve never been through this. We’re as susceptible as anyone. Our entire household recommitted today to staying vigilant, consistent and conservative.
Welcome to life on the bleeding edge of a global pandemic, where the consequences of individual decisions can become life or death.
Personal Update:
- I am scheduled to get the antibody test this afternoon. I will report my results, and what they mean.
- Lisa has a videoconference with her doctor this afternoon as well. We’ll have more information from that as well.
In the meantime, stay safe and healthy, my friends!
